The Transport Navigator’s Perspective
Noël Perry is TIA’s Chief Economist
Hello everyone, I am glad to be on board!
As you may have already heard, Bob volmann邀请我作为咨询市场分析师加入TIA——你们的“内部交通经济学家”. 我非常荣幸鲍勃的邀请，我很高兴与这么多的朋友，并有机会使更多. 作为我新角色的一部分，我将定期就重要话题发表评论. The timing will be roughly every two weeks. 我说“粗略”是因为当有重要的事情要写的时候，它才最有意义, rather than on a fixed schedule. 由于现在还是年初，鲍勃让我在我的第一篇文章中谈谈2019年的前景. Here goes!
I’m an economist. Of course, I say, “it depends”. 经纪人如何看待2019年的前景取决于他们的视角. 如果这个经纪人将它与历史上最好的年份之一相比的话, last year, he or she will probably be disappointed. Loads will be harder to find – spot volume could be down more than five percent; prices will be lower – perhaps as much as 10% down. It’s like being on a small boat in a stormy sea. One moment you are on the top of a wave, 然而你知道你会在片刻之间滑下一个槽. 但在卡车运输行业，BET8APP怎么下载倾向于认为好日子会继续下去. Not so! 如果你比较2019年和2018年，2018年是浪潮之年，看起来不会很好. 现在，如果该券商将2019年的前景与平均年份进行比较，它可能看起来相当不错. 即使情况下滑了不少，结果仍远高于平均水平. With a good start already in the books, 即使年底的运行率下降，全年的运行率也应该看起来不错. 这一年可能感觉很弱——BET8APP怎么下载仍将把它与2018年相比——但经纪商将比平均水平赚得更多.
Things should look up for margins: There is good evidence that brokers’ margins will go up in 2019. History shows them to move in the opposite direction of the overall market; higher percent’s in bad years, lower in good years. 由于2019年不会像2018年那么好，券商的利润率应该会上升. This puzzling phenomenon has two explanations. The first is just math. 由于经纪公司的成本在整个商业周期内相对保持不变，而且利润率反映了成本，因此利润率在整个商业周期内也相对保持不变. If so, 价格高时的利润率比价格低时的利润率要小. 在价格高的年份，它们的绝对值可能会上升，但占收入的份额更小. 另一种解释是卡车司机比托运人对市场周期更敏感. 卡车司机在困难时期会在价格上让步，而在市场紧张时则会表现出不成比例的勇气. I have always said the truckers are ‘shy pricers’, except when they have plenty of emotional cover, as when driver shortages appear.
But isn’t economics the dismal science? What’s the downside? Now, turning back to prospects for 2019. Of course, some brokers are natural worriers. “I just hired ten new people or opened three new offices. What if things go bad? How will I cover those costs? Well, there are two things to worry about in 2019. 托运人担心经济会像总统向BET8APP怎么下载保证的那样繁荣, and that the market will tighten right back up. It is possible, but not nearly possible enough to bet on. 另一件需要担心的事情是相反的结果，一个衰退的经济. The economy will decline some, that is highly likely. But some economists, me included, 是否担心下半年经济将开始滑向衰退. Why? This recovery is getting very old. It is already the longest in history. 目前的统计数据中有足够多的漏洞来显示那个时代的脆弱性. 此外，2019年包括中国在内的全球经济可能会下滑. That would hurt the U.S.
Recession? Tell me when! What does such a worry mean to 2019? Probably not much for the first half, 而且在下半年还不足以毁掉全年业绩. But what it does say is that 2020 could be a real bummer. Economists do not generally like to forecast recessions. 因此，他们中的一些人开始公开谈论2020年的衰退，这很能说明问题. 由此可见，这位忧心忡忡的经纪人将在2019年支付他的成本，但可能不会在2020年.
Be prudent and start buttering up those shippers: This all has two simple messages for brokers. First, this is a time for putting money aside, 不是为了在新设备或人员上花更多的钱——除非你的眼光很长远，并且有足够的资源轻松度过一两年的艰难时期. 其次，这是一个与值得信赖的托运人达成良好交易的好时机. Such relationships will come in very handy if the market slides. 2018 was a great year to bet on the capacity side. In 2019 that emphasis will move towards the demand side.
Here’s the latest spot data: 最后，我将回顾来自Truckstop的最新现货市场定价数据.com. 你可以清楚地看到2018年年中开始的价格下降，以及过去一个月的缓慢下滑. 因为这些数据是参照这次复苏的平均值，所以目前的数据表明市场仍然相对强劲, just not as strong as a year ago. As to 2019, 最保险的说法是，价格将大致保持在感恩节以来的水平, leaving them above the average since 2009, but below last year. 这就是为什么我说，你对今年市场的看法将取决于你的视角. 如果你把它与去年相比，你会感到失望，也许非常失望. If you are comparing to the average year, you are happy. It’s just like we Eagle fans from Philly. Compared to last year’s Stupid Bowl victory, that loss to the Saints in early January was a bitter blow. Still, our team won a playoff game. 这比在11月像NFL的大多数球队一样被淘汰要好得多. The 2018 post season was a peak for us. 2019 was down but still pretty good. 我想，一些市场的表现就像汤姆•布雷迪(Tom Brady)，每年都赢得最多. None of the market you and I play in have a quarterback like that.
What about Washington? One final thought. Results in 2018 were heavily influenced by regulatory events. This year they will not be. Even before the arrival of my college classmate in the White House, 2019 was scheduled to be a lite year for new regs. His business-friendly policy reinforces that. 上述价格数据轨迹的任何变化都必须来自于经济. That’s why I emphasized the chance of recession. 这种下滑最有可能扰乱总体上良性的现状. 同样，BET8APP怎么下载可能应该滑过2019年——2020年风险将会增加. 这是他们的预测:今年将是不错的一年，略高于平均水平——在明年触底之前.
I need something from you: I want these pieces to be relevant to your markets. 你可以通过让我知道你想让我解决的问题来极大地帮助我. What are YOU worried about? What are YOU excited about? What have YOU noticed of interest? What has YOU puzzled? What keeps you up at night? Please contact me via telephone at or email me at email@example.com. I would love to hear from you. Please also take a few minutes to visit my website at TransportFutures.net. Again, it’s great to be on board. I look forward to working with you.